Soybeans & Products. The IEA now sees global oil demand at 99.9 million barrels a day in 2020, down around 90,000 barrels a day from 2019. The current level of U.S. crude oil production as of December 2020 is 11,000.00 thousand barrels per day. Our pessimistic low case assumes that countries already affected by the virus recover more slowly while the epidemic spreads further in Europe, Asia, and beyond. But the defining story of oil in the age of global coronavirus is not supply, analysts say. In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. "A demand drop of 10% is the New Normal with oil," said John Driscoll, director of JTD Energy Services in Singapore and a former oil trader whose career spans nearly 40 years. North Sea Dated, remained below the futures front month reflecting a well-supplied prompt market. Demand for oil has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world have kept people inside. Furthermore, oil price changes often impact the rest of the economy. The increase reflects OPEC's announced potential increases to production targets and production increases in Libya. Reflecting new data we have revised down our demand estimates for the third quarter of 2020 (-0.2 mb/d), with weakness seen particularly in North America (including Mexico) and India. Exxon has a announced some pretty game changing predictions for oil supply and demand, and if the company is correct, peak oil is not likely to happen in our lifetimes Stabilising the market was the aim and to the extent that oil prices have been remarkably steady since mid-June and observed oil stocks drew in the third quarter (-0.9 mb/d ), the efforts of the producers have shown some success. While China has taken strong measures in response to the outbreak, the situation appears to be worsening around the world, with more than 60 countries reporting cases. Robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). Coronavirus, Crude Oil, Forecast; Export . However, as we said in last month’s Report, the outlook remains fragile. When assessing the impact of oil prices on the global economy, economists typically distinguish between supply- and demand-driven oil shocks. Growing economies increase demand for energy in general and especially for transporting goods and materials from producers to consumers. Geopolitical events and severe weather that disrupt the supply of crude oil and petroleum products to market can affect crude oil and petroleum product prices. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Digital Demand-Driven Electricity Networks Initiative, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, Promoting digital demand-driven electricity networks, Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2020. Causes of world crude oil prices and supply disruptions. (Data shown in the table is for 2016. In this Report we provide a Low Case and a High Case detailing weaker and stronger outlooks, respectively. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent crude rising above $40 a barrel, as the IEA increased its oil demand forecast for 2020 and as record supply cuts supported. However, demand from the aviation sector will continue to suffer from the contraction in global air travel. Prices saw a 10% early-October jump ahead of Hurricane Delta. February margins saw short-lived support from falling crude oil prices. Global refining throughput in 2020 is expected to decline for the second consecutive year, falling below 2017 levels as demand for transport fuels plunges in the wake of the coronavirus. In the second quarter, as the situation in China improves, demand deteriorates in some other large economies, such as Japan and Europe. Skip navigation. The report will touch on supply and demand projections out to 2045. Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. Six months ago leading oil producers came together, supported by an extraordinary meeting of G20 energy ministers, to coordinate massive production cuts to offset the collapse in oil demand caused by Covid-19 lockdowns and so provide life support to the oil market. Citizens are no longer driving to work; planes remain on the ground. On March 5, 2020, OPEC proposed a 1.5 million barrel per day (mb/d) production cut for the second quarter of 2020, of which 1 mb/d would come from OPEC countries and 0.5 mb/d from non-OPEC but aligned producers, most prominently Russia. As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. This surely raises doubts about the robustness of the anticipated economic recovery and thus the prospects for oil demand growth. We also present the final data for Jan/Dec 2019 (with comparison for the preceding 4 years) for: Short-term floating storage of crude oil built 1.9 mb in February to 80.2 mb, most of which is owned by Iran. In this chart, WTI price levels are graphed with world GDP growth rates (as an indicator of global oil demand growth) and quarterly changes in world capacity, defined as OPEC capacity plus non-OPEC production (as an indicator of global oil supply growth). This outbreak gives negative effects on the country’s economy from global supply and demand shocks and also domestic factors during the lockdown. The oil market has been under pressure in 2020, with the spot price for WTI crude oil declining by 20% since January as the COVID-19 pandemic has caused global demand to shrivel up. In 4Q20, world supply may rise towards 92 mb/d from 91.3 mb/d in 3Q20 if Libyan output continues to recover and assuming OPEC+ produces to its target. In February and into March, Chinese run cuts pressured the price of crude from the Middle East and West Africa in particular. In 1Q20, refining intake has been revised down by 1.2 mb/d, primarily due to China, where February runs are estimated at 10.1 mb/d, down 2.7 mb/d y-o-y. Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. While the situation remains fluid, we expect global oil demand to fall in 2020 – the first full-year decline in more than a decade – because of the deep contraction in China, which accounted for more than 80% of global oil demand growth in 2019, and major disruptions to travel and trade. OPEC estimated that total global oil demand will come in at 99.73 million b/d in 2020, with the second half of the year expected to see higher consumption than the first half. US Crude Oil Supply and Demand Trends. Long Run Forecast In the long run, which “ is a time frame in which the quantity of all factors of production can be varied ” (Parkin 2010, p.214), oil demand and supply … The world will be over-supplied with oil in 2020. Also, there is a risk that the demand recovery is stalled by the recent increase in Covid-19 cases in many countries. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. Due to the coronavirus outbreak weighing on economic growth, OPEC now sees global oil demand rising by mere 60,000 bpd in 2020 after it has slashed … EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record 9.3 million barrels a day this year as government-implemented lockdowns keep the economy at a near standstill, the International Energy Agency said. This outbreak gives negative effects on the country’s economy from global supply and demand shocks and also domestic factors during the lockdown. Thank you for subscribing. TABLE OF CONTENTS. See also: List of countries by Oil Reserves There are 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves in the world as of 2016. The world’s transportation sector is almost totally dependent on petroleum … As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. - The supply-demand imbalance favors dwindling supplies over the coming months, a tailwind for crude oil prices. IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - March 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2020. 2020 Oil Prices. Demand-driven shocks are related to the evolution of global demand and as such are not expected to have an independent effect on the global economy. The statistics are based on the OIL WORLD Monthly of 11 December 2020. For example, oil supply may be increased through new extraction technologies or the discovery of new oil fields (Mail Online. This chart shows how projections of changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil production results in changes in WTI crude oil prices. Containment measures have resulted in drastic reductions in international and domestic transportation around the world as countries respond to the rapid spread of the virus. Thank you for subscribing. This year, the report considers topics such as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand; slowing supply growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries; and the level of spare production capacity in OPEC countries to help meet demand growth. Our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 91.7 mb/d, down 8.4 mb/d from 2019. The agreed 9.7 mb/d production cut is planned for the two months starting on 1 May 2020. Recent developments in US oil demand tell a similar story. Earlier this month, the OECD lowered its global economic growth estimate for 2020 by 0.5% to 2.4%, a revision that is factored in to our latest projections. See Definitions, Sources, and Notes link above for more information on this table. Updated: Monthly | Last Updated: 12/08/2020 Oil markets often respond to changing expectations of future supply and demand. For 2020 as a whole, the magnitude of the drop in the first half leads to a decline in global oil demand of around 90,000 barrels per day, the first annual fall since 2009. Under almost any scenario, the world is likely to require significant amounts of investment in new oil production for many years to come. - - OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2020 - - On about 730 pages the ANNUAL provides analyses and statistics of the 2019/20 world supply & demand situation and of the prospects for all major oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals. The increase in demand for oil has the same effect as a reduction in supply, that being, the price of oil responds sharply to an increase in demand. The IEA predicts non-OPEC supply to expand by 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and by another 2.2 mb/d in 2020, with demand growth figures running at about half those levels. However, a second wave of Covid-19 cases and new movement restrictions are now slowing demand growth. As we move through the second half of the year, demand picks up, growing by 1.1 mb/d compared with the second half of 2019. Oil traders believe it’s likely to take more than a year, and perhaps much longer, before global demand reaches the pre-pandemic levels of roughly 100 million barrels a day. Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart. In 2021, runs will rebound only partially, to levels last seen in 2015. The supply of oil is also fairly inelastic. World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast, 2020-2021 . It was impossible at that time to know how extensive the damage from the pandemic would be and for how long life support would be needed. In our base case, the outbreak is brought under control in China by the end of the first quarter but spreads across many other countries beyond Iran, Korea, Japan, Singapore, the United States and Europe. ICE Brent fell below $46/bbl during 6 March, the lowest level since June 2017. Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart. We assume that oil demand returns to close to normal in 2H20. For the first time since 2009, demand is expected to fall year-on-year, by 90 kb/d. Posted on October 17, 2020 October 16, 2020 by Robert Boslego. Oil supply minus demand Brent 2017 annual average Brent price 2018 average Brent price Global oil market balance Brent oil price 2017–2018 USD/bbl 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0 -2.5-40%. OPEC revised down by another 400,000 bpd its forecast for global oil demand this year, expecting consumption to shrink by 9.5 million bpd over 2019 With falling demand and increasing supply, the front-month price of the U.S. benchmark crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell from a year-to-date high closing price of $63.27 per barrel (b) on January 6 to a year-to-date low of $20.37/b on March 18 (Figure 1), the lowest nominal crude oil price since February 2002. Due to the coronavirus outbreak weighing on economic growth, OPEC now sees global oil demand rising by mere 60,000 bpd in 2020 after it has slashed … The uncertain outlook that could see the draw down of stocks falter is reflected in the fact that physical prices have weakened and this has brought down the front of the forward curve for Brent crude oil. Around the world the supply of oil far exceeds demand for it, as governments try to limit the spread of covid-19. The above graph highlights 2020 oil prices, making clear the effects of COVID-19 on the markets. Statistics: Soybeans. This implies a huge and ever widening gap between oil supply and the demand profiles. While this is a large change, it is happening from record high levels. Bookmark ... (EIA), oil supply exceeded demand by around 6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2020 and the gap is expected to extend to 11.4 million barrels per day in the second quarter. As well as the negative impact on demand of the coronavirus, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting was seen by traders as a bearish signal. This includes an estimated annual decline of 4.2 mb/d in February, of which 3.6 mb/d was in China. Physical prices e.g. It takes longer to control the propagation of the virus, and the contraction in Chinese oil demand eases more slowly in March. In the long run oil supply and demand is elastic, because future alternatives give the potential for reduced demand and increased supply. ... At the end, what matters for crude oil is supply and demand. 2020 is a challenging year for most of the industries in the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. With the 1.9 mb/d increase in the OPEC+ production ceiling currently planned for 1 January, there is only limited headroom for the market to absorb extra supply in the next few months. Updated on 18 December 2020. 2020 is a challenging year for most of the industries in the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Digital Demand-Driven Electricity Networks Initiative, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, Promoting digital demand-driven electricity networks, Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2019. In 1Q20, China’s demand falls by 1.8 mb/d y-o-y with global demand down 2.5 mb/d. MALAYSIA: Exports of Palm oil until November 2020 (1000 T) GRAPH: MALAYSIA Palm Oil Production & Exports; GRAPH: MALAYSIA Annual Palm Oil Yields; BUY THIS ISSUE. Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2019 (pdf), Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. ... IG Client Sentiment Index: Crude Oil (June 22, 2020) (Chart 1) Oil - … Find out about the world, a region, or a country ... Last updated 27 Jul 2020. Europe could face a shortage of oil within the next decade, making the move to increase the use of low carbon energy even more urgent, according to a … The forward curve for 3.5% fuel oil suggests strength may continue into 2020. At 100 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines from OPEC. Libya, being outside the OPEC+ agreement, can produce at the level it wishes. 2009), which will shift the supply curve to the right and reduce oil prices. ICE Brent fell by-$3.15/bbl and NYMEX WTI by -$2.76/bbl m-o-m to $41.87/bbl and $39.63/bbl, respectively. Stocks peaked at 3.204 billion in May 2020. First, should the global economy slow down even more, prices could fall to the USD50-55/bbl range. Economic growth is one of the biggest factors affecting petroleum product—and therefore crude oil—demand. Covid-19 (coronavirus) has spread beyond China and our 2020 base case global oil demand forecast is cut by 1.1 mb/d. In October, Hurricane Delta shut in record volumes of United States offshore production, although initial reports suggest that damage to infrastructure is limited and output is expected to recover quickly. The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. IEA's oil market report was released yesterday suggesting a Q4 2020 market deficit of 4.1 mb/d. Crude futures fell in September versus August, partly reflecting weaker financial markets. (13 April 2020) OPEC+ countries agreed to cut their overall oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day at the 10th extraordinary meeting held on April 12. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Supply didn’t fall and demand didn’t rise in response to the historic plunge in the price of crude. Oil 2020 examines the key issues in demand, supply, refining and trade to 2025. The implication, therefore, is that the OPEC+ countries will be free to exercise their commercial judgement when assessing future levels of production. In 4Q20, demand and refining forecasts imply large product stock draws, but refinery margins may not get an immediate boost. Since both supply and demand for oil are not very responsive to price changes, oil price swings tend to be dramatic. The resulting higher oil prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to restrain output in 2020. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale. In the past few weeks, Covid-19 (coronavirus) has gone from being a Chinese health crisis to a global health emergency. Projected oil demand in Asia-Pacific is the highest in the world, at 36.7 million barrels daily in 2020, followed closely by the Americas. It is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the industry. Total oil stocks stood 2.9 mb above the five-year average and covered 63 days of forward demand. Coronavirus Data and Insights . European demand remains subdued in the third quarter, and demand in the United States grows at a slower pace. This is the largest oil production cut ever negotiated aimed at stabilizing oil prices. A statement issued at the end of the meeting made no mention of supply restraint, saying only that further consultations will take place. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. Interactive historical chart showing the monthly level of U.S. crude oil production back to 1983 from the US Energy Information Adminstration (EIA). IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - October 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2020. Release Date: 12/31/2020: Next Release Date: 1/29/2021 In this pessimistic case, global oil demand could decline by 730,000 barrels per day in 2020. Demand for oil has all but dried up as lockdowns across the world have kept people inside. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a market surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and demand worries outweighed concern over disruptions to Libya's crude output. In this context, governments do not need to take strong containment measures and use of transport remains closer to normal. Freight rates remain at historically weak levels as tanker activity sits at a near 10% deficit to 2019 levels. Containment measures imposed in North America, Europe and elsewhere are expected to have a smaller impact on oil demand than those in China. With extraordinary uncertainty clouding the immediate outlook for the global oil market both on the demand and supply sides, and of course for prices which ended the week $5/bbl (Brent) lower than on the eve of the OPEC+ meeting, the IEA will continue to monitor the situation closely. Figure 4. Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Values shown are in thousands of barrels produced per day. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. This implies a huge and ever widening gap between oil supply and the demand profiles. The longer term offers little encouragement for the producers; the curve shows prices not reaching $50/bbl until 2023. Preliminary data for September show that crude stocks in the US and Japan fell by 6.5 mb and 1.8 mb, respectively, while those in Europe rose by 3.3 mb. Recent developments in US oil demand tell a similar story. Download chart. WTI crude futures crossed $50 per barrel on Tuesday for the first time since February 2020, after major oil producers agreed to roll over existing oil output levels into February and March, with Saudi Arabia engaging in a voluntary production cut below its quota and Russia and Kazakhstan being allowed to raise. Posted on September 16, 2020 by Robert Boslego. World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, October 2020. Our global demand and supply estimates (including an assumption of full compliance with the OPEC+ agreement) imply a significant stock draw of 4 mb/d in the fourth quarter. Under almost any scenario, the world is likely to require significant amounts of investment in new oil production for many years to come. In August, OECD industry stocks fell by 22.1 mb (0.71 mb/d) m-o-m to 3 194 mb, and were 209.1 mb above their five-year average level. The IEA predicts non-OPEC supply to expand by 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and by another 2.2 mb/d in 2020, with demand growth figures running at about half those levels. Total non-OPEC supply is set to drop by 2.6 mb/d in 2020 before recovering by 0.4 mb/d in 2021. Malaysian palm oil industry was also affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus. Oil Prices Fall As Supply Jumps. Data are far from complete but, in the first quarter, the visible decline in transport, industrial and commercial activity points to a massive drop in global oil demand of 2.5 mb/d compared with the first quarter of last year. Malaysian palm oil industry was also affected by the outbreak of the coronavirus. The report provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance. Goods and materials from producers to consumers last updated 27 Jul 2020 months, second! 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