The majority of venture capital worldwide originates in NATO member states, but the long-standing culture gap between governments and the private sector prevents these resources from being fully utilized. Then disaster struck. Currently variables and metrics are neither well-characterized nor well-quantified, particularly for specific-defense related concepts. Now in its second printing, it continues to be in great demand among readers both at home and abroad. As new and unpredicted technologies are emerging at a seemingly unprecedented pace globally, communication of those new discoveries is occurring faster than ever, meaning that the unique ownership of a new technology is no longer a sufficient position, if not impossible. To better enable new capabilities and to defend the nation against emerging threats in a new security environment, the role of emerging sciences and technology for U.S. defense and foreign policy should be analytically assessed, theoretically-developed, and understood, i.e., how emerging technologies reconcile with or challenge traditional models for national security, e.g., deterrence, offense-defense balance, strategic security, regime theory, and nonproliferation. If we give up our values system, then our position is permanently damaged. Get the latest news from GLOBSEC monthly to your inbox. Like the author was trying to beat a record for amount of syllables per word, or for clauses per sentence. This author needs to put down the thesaurus and write for content, not for length of the word or length f the sentence or length of the article. GLOBSEC New technologies are coming no matter what, should be embraced, and will fundamentally influence the future of warfare. Scientists recruited by the government have been developing some pretty crazy technology. Showcase Presentation on AI and Big Data with Dr. Ana Isabel Barros Artificial intelligence algorithms designed to engage in air warfare have begun competing with, and perhaps one day will surpass, human military pilots. Synthesizing technical research along with social science research is essential to understanding the impact of technology on warfare. We should have predicted — back in 1990s — that the necessary technology for such a program would not be available for decades yet. The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies November 25, 2020 14:00 CET. Information about processing of personal data is available in our Privacy Policy. Some states, such as China and those in the Middle East, that have devised new technology strategies are experiencing profound economic and societal transitions. The articles and other content which appear on the Modern War Institute website are unofficial expressions of opinion. Militaries should focus on “explainability” and remember that AI/ML is a “statistical rather than smart” technology. Technology and the Future of Warfare. Globalization and the information revolution, including the Internet and other communication leaps – have led to much greater visibility into the availability and potential for science and technology. Panel One: The Future of AI: Bridging the Knowledge and Capability Gap When asked what are the current approaches and thinking on means for deterring emerging technologies of concern (beyond cyber) to the U.S., then-USSTRATCOM Commander General Robert Kehler (USAF) responded that “surprise is what keeps me up at night” and cited current uncertainty in how to assess and address emerging and disruptive technologies. Additionally, deteriorating relations between great powers also affect the private sector. If we give up our values system, then our position is permanently damaged. Future Warfare has also proven to be popular among the Internet users who surf our homepage. new version ofFuture Warfar . The widespread enthusiasm for emerging technologies is reflected not only in official rhetoric but is also codified in respective national technology strategies and the global upswing of dedicated funding. NATO is committed to adjusting “the way it does business,” and the Alliance wants to maintain dialogue with industry, including with non-traditional providers, at every stage of the acquisition process. Interaction with academia and the private sector is essential to success, especially because much of the innovation we see today is coming from these sectors. he public sector has the ability to serve as, for start-ups whose risks are difficult to measure, government investment promotes confidence among private investors. In the context of the future of warfare, the implications of such profound transformations will directly impinge upon the very concept of conflict, its ... Technology offers the promise of economic progress for billions in emerging economies at a speed that would have been unimaginable without the Internet. Finding ways to achieve military effectiveness while not compromising our morals is essential. Getting the Military and Social Scientists Back Together: The Need for “Expeditionary Social Science”, Video: The Story of the Capture of Saddam Hussein with Eric Maddox. IN THE PAST, predictions about future warfare have often put too much emphasis on new technologies and doctrines. Understanding these changing paradigms and the implications for modern warfare starts with an awareness of the factors driving the capabilities, understanding the underlying science and the challenges of foreign policy, considering the changing nature of technological progress and the changing nature of conflict, and the relationship between science and security domestically and internationally. Author and Pentagon advisor John Arquilla believes that today’s big weapons systems are wrong for modern battle. A Leader’s Guide to Conducting Research Staff Rides, will transform the technological battlefield, Coercion and Competition: Evaluating American Options for Overcoming Adversaries and Avoiding War, The Twelve Days of Urban Warfare Christmas, Without Firing a Shot: Coercion and Strategy in an Era of Great Power Competition, Announcing MWI’s 2020–21 Fellows and Adjunct Scholars. We cannot afford to have a strategic distance between the public and private sector, especially because states like Russia and China do not have this strategic distance. In order to ensure that new technologies work for us and not against, cooperation with the private sector and academia is more crucial now than ever. Yet, others have argued that such technologies could yield doomsday scenarios and that military applications of such technologies have even greater potential than nuclear weapons to radically change the balance of power. The novel scientific principles that underlie the character of these uncertain technologies and their convergence with political and social institutions reveal conceptual and empirical confusion associated with assessing the national security implications. We need to bridge this gap in earlier stages of policy development. But they differ with respect to critical socio-political and economic criteria for national prosperity and competitiveness (e.g., demography, research and development [R&D] infrastructure and sustainment, and resource endowments versus dependence). In most cases, it's incremental changes to existing technologies that give one side an edge over the other. Excessive trust in AI is extremely dangerous, especially in a military setting, which is why the technology should be implemented incrementally and carefully. A critical piece of the future of networked warfare is a technology already familiar to many consumers and hobbyists: small drones. Her research explores the relationships among technology, strategy, and governance. It doesn't even really say anything. Trust amongst nations is key for encouraging the maintenance of a regulatory framework that is both stable and ethical. Warfare is being transformed by the information revolution. In Geoană’s words, NATO wants to seize the opportunities that technology offers and find solutions for our most pressing challenges. : Recap, GLOBSEC Appoints Oscar Sanz-Paris as the Think-tank’s Ambassador for the Financial Services Sector in North America, The Future of Warfare and the Role of New and Emerging Technologies: Recap, Château Béla Central European Strategic Forum 2020, NATO 2030: NATO – Private Sector Dialogues with GLOBSEC, GEOPE – “Geopolitical Europe: Are the EU Member-states Ready for It?”. After an official welcome by GLOBSEC’s President Robert Vass, the NATO 2030: NATO-Private Sector Dialogue was opened by a keynote speech by NATO’s Deputy Secretary-General Ambassador Mircea Geoană. NATO also needs to ensure that the human pa rt of its warfare preparation is being developed, and i nnovation strategy needs to be accompanied by a strategy for integration. What will weapons look like in the future? In the future war will be fought primarily by robots, but until then the technology of warfare will continue to advance the capabilities of today's soldier on the battlefield. As the role of technology within warfare continues to increase, it is important to investigate whether or not the consequences of these weapons are being adequately considered. On the future of warfare (and technology and people) Published on December 13, 2019 December 13, 2019 • 15 Likes • 6 Comments A remaining challenge is the time it takes to adapt new ideas and technologies since the pace of innovation is accelerating every day. The aim should be to develop implementable and executable analytical frameworks to explain variable approaches to the development of strategically significant emerging S&T programs, to understand the impact of emerging technology on security in the 21st Century, to enable mechanisms for the world to govern the implications of its own ingenuity, and to inform U.S. defense and foreign policies. In this sense the geopolitics of AI provide NATO, EU, and partners with an opportunity to unite on maintaining high standards and ethical practices for the use of AI. Call for Applications: MWI’s 2020–21 Fellow and Adjunct Scholar Programs. How we will maintain our values while we develop new technologies is a critical question to consider. –. He stressed how technology has always been key to deterrence and defence and how it has to be prioritised even more now by NATO and its allies in order to maintain our edge. The NATO Science and Technology Organization (STO), the largest defence, science, and technology collaborative network, brings together actors from academia, industry, and the military, all of whom have different perspectives when it comes to addressing challenges posed by new and emerging technology. Save From AI to fully automated robots, what will warfare look like over the next 100 years? The most destructive periods of history tend to be those when the means of aggression have gained the upper hand in the art of waging war.”. Reflections on Sustainable and Green Europe: The Way Towards Global Leadership? As the defense leadership attempts to define and prepare a more efficient and effective military from the top down, the services are selectively transforming key capabilities to meet the anticipated needs for warfare in the new millennium. Of critical importance in considering the national and international security implications of technology is that anticipated scenarios should be plausible within constraints of physical viability as well as likely within institutional capacities and tacit capabilities. Future of warfare: new tech helps better detect drones It’s been called ‘the future of warfare’. The speed at which technology is changing is daunting, and NATO needs an architecture that acknowledges this reality. Fundamentally, NATO, the U.S., and the EU need to be players in AI to protect themselves from AI. From the private sector standpoint, public buy-in also needs to be prioritised because many in the private sector are not familiar with or don’t feel connected to some of NATO’s initiatives. If NATO wants to fully harness innovation, it needs to address the delay between initial funding and implementation; it is not enough to find novel innovations. The idea is that small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS), or drones, can collect data at tactical levels, buzzing around … This will help to bridge the existing acquisition gap, and to maintain technological investments beyond the initial testing period. Laser weapons. Threats from Russia and China also underline the importance of our values. Disruptive Technologies and how they are going to impact the emerging conflicts of the 21st century is something which every student of modern warfare is trying to understand. We know that emerging innovations within cutting-edge science and technology (S&T) areas carry the potential to revolutionize governmental structures, economies, and life as we know it. New technologies are coming no matter what, should be embraced, and will fundamentally influence the future of warfare. If NATO wants to fully harness innovation, it needs to address the delay between initial funding and implementation; it is not enough to find novel innovations. How we will maintain our values while we develop new technologies is a critical question to consider. We’re always looking for contributors! The penultimate goal should not be to predict specific new technologies, which is rarely a high-fidelity pursuit except in retrospective cherry-picking of scenarios from favorite science-fiction stories, and one should be skeptical of any one or group that claims thy can do such. Claims for the potential impacts of technology can seem fantastic; at times, differentiating rhetoric from reality can be difficult. A new era in military planning is under way. The fact that the private sector is heavily involved in AI, Big Data, hypersonics, and other technologies, only highlights how important interaction between the private sector and public sector is and will continue to be. That is the notion that technology alone, or is even the most important factor, can determine the outbreak or outcome of conflict. Weapons that have existed for decades are rapidly developing more effective capabilities, for example, missiles that travel far faster than sound and thus perhaps require defense systems that detect and respond more quickly than humans. At the same time, to deny or dismiss the role of technology in effecting the outcome (as well as outbreak) of war and conflict is also perilous. The Future Of War. Spaceplanes and planes that fly themselves. Technology. Military innovations from wooden catapults to nuclear bombs have been transforming the way war is waged since prehistoric humans carved arrows from stones some 10,000 years ago. Hypersonic missiles. As one example of the rhetoric: During a visit to the Kurchatov Institute, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented “This [nanotechnology] could be the key to developing new, modern, and super-effective military systems.²” He later warned of “[a] new round of the arms race is developing in the world,” while calling for the development of Russian science, including nanotechnology, which could be used to develop new types of weapons. Science is and will continue to enable new technological developments becoming accessible and affordable to a larger number of nations and within the grasp of non-state actors:   advanced technology is no longer the domain of the few. “use fast, fail safely” model, which the US and France have already begun to implement. Increased collaboration is needed to address hybrid threats & emerging technologies, including formulating legal frameworks to deal with these threats. However, governments can learn from venture capital in particular, including from innovative purchasing strategies like the “use fast, fail safely” model, which the US and France have already begun to implement. Latest. One must always be cognizant and skeptical of slipping into a technological deterministic mindset. The future is not a silent mystery. Contemporary analyses often expose the tenuous links or disconnections among mainstream scholarship on international security and war (or strategic) studies, understanding of the defense technological innovation and acquisition processes, and fundamental understanding of the underlying science. [CDATA[*/eval("var a=\"2knIHWqdVYO_K+6ACD01oj-tP94leyTJbUhXapLvwZBu3@8cESzgxmQGrM7FNfs5.Ri\";var b=a.split(\"\").sort().join(\"\");var c=\"SQ8G+cxGBF@unG7c\";var d=\"\";for(var e=0;e\"+d+\"\"")/*]]>*/, Copyright © 2008-2020 GLOBSEC | All rights reserved, The speed at which technology is changing is daunting, and NATO needs an architecture that, , and will fundamentally influence the future of warfare, afford to have a strategic distance between the. The Modern War Institute does not screen articles to fit a particular editorial agenda, nor endorse or advocate material that is published. The use of new weapons technologies, such as Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles and Precision Guided Munitions, ... future. Neither purist ideology is manifested in the operational world. Challenges for implementing AI/ML in combat include its ability be tricked, hacked, or “fuzzed,” and AI/ML also poses risks when it comes to applying the Laws of Armed Conflict. ... 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